A632.5.5.RB_SiegmundWayne

Protected Values in Decision Making

     My Protected Values (PV), the intentional use of particular semantics (say what you mean, and mean what you say), forthcoming and upfront behavior, and fairness, I typically keep close in mind, reference them often, and use them in comparisons regularly to hold against scrutiny (Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther, 2001).

     These values I hold most dear, because I believe that clear, concise, unambiguous language offers the best avenue to understanding. I value those who can be forthcoming and upfront, because it leave me with a sense of trust. I believe that honesty typically is the best policy. I learned long ago that I would rather face the consequences of a truth than a lie. My third PV is fairness, because life can often be unfair, and to be able to inject a sense of fairness into decision making makes me feel good about my ability to make compromise with another person, or people.

     In considering what circumstances I might allow a trade-off to occur with either of these three PVs, I can state that these PVs, or any other PVs of mine, are not absolute, save one - my spirituality. That is to say that my belief in God is beyond reproach, unchangeable against all scrutiny and threat, and will never be compromised in any way. I chose three PVs that may potentially get traded off under specific circumstances.

     In respect to the use of choice semantics in attempt to convey an idea, I may trade-off in the case of confusing another in hopes of winning an argument. Receiving confusing language from another without attempting to get clarification would come from a disinterested disposition in what the other had to say, or to avoid an argumentative conflict. With respect to being forthcoming and upfront, I suppose I would support this value up to the point where I would feel it may do some irreparable harm.

     Conceptualizing how these values progress from being protected to getting partially traded-off can be seen when the PV is in conflict with another value of sorts. As this 'other value' increases, the likelihood of a trade-off of the PV increases. To associate Gilbert (2005), with these potential conflicts, It seems to me in my experience that computing probability will occur once a conflict has been identified between a PV and another value that is not so protected, but whose probability has made it so that if the PV was not allowed for a trade-off, would cause some type of irreparable harm.

     For example, if my spouse asked if there is enough money to go away for the weekend, and I said, no, not this weekend, I would see a conflict between not being forthcoming and upfront with her about the money spent two days ago to get my truck professionally detailed, and the value of her trust in me to make choices she would agree with. In this case, I would let her believe the money went to bills in order to preserve her trust. Here, I chose a value whose probability of loss had increased to the point that being forthcoming and upfront could have tainted the trust my spouse had in me, therefore, choosing to maintain the trust with a valuable lesson learned, as well as a dose of guilt. Vlachoutsicos (2013), shares "balancing the tensions between adhering to one’s values and being effective may well demand uncomfortable compromises".

References:

Gilbert, D. (2005, July). Dan gilbert: Why we make bad decisions. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_gilbert_researches_happiness?language=en

Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H. C. & Gunther, R. E. (Eds.). (2001). Wharton on making decisions. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley and Sons, Inc.

Mulligan, K. (2004). The nature of value conflict and its consequences for public opinion. Retrieved from https://etd.ohiolink.edu/rws_etd/document/get/osu1092075628/inline

Vlachoutsicos, C. (2013, January 31). Ethics: When your values clash with your company's. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/2013/01/when-your-values-clash-with-yo

A632.5.4.RB_SiegmundWayne

How Protected Are Your Protected Values

            I feel my Protected Values (PV) are what provide me with a moral code through which I keep integrity, clarity, and fairness. Of all my values, I protect those that reflect ‘saying what you mean’ and meaning what you say’, intention of being forthcoming and up-front, and lastly, giving fair consideration to others (Hoch, Kunreuther &Gunther, 2001). As for trade-offs, they can affect you positively and negatively, depending on the circumstances. In the case where I share a PV with my spouse, such as keeping our children healthy, we generally believe in not vaccinating. While we believe vaccinations can harm our children, they can also support the scholastic community in staying healthy against what the vaccine is for.

            These three highly protected values of mine are nested in a larger frame of beliefs. When I was married, these three beliefs were rooted into our vows for our marriage, and still live by them today as the foundation of our relationship. The first belief is in Communication. I believe communicating is a vital aspect to any relationship. I feel when visual and audible communication are withheld, the relationship can be left with a myriad of ideas, assumptions and emotions to figure out. Listening to people communicate, there appears to be a need to convey, and unfortunately, need to convince. Either way, I have a strong feeling when it comes to semantics. Where words have meaning and used to convey an idea, when improperly used, can take an ordinary day, and make it a challenging and stressful one. On the other hand, when choice words are used, yet confusing, it can promote the consideration of other meanings that otherwise may be outside of our awareness.

In terms of a trade-off when it comes to communication, I would accept poor semantics in the event of talks with my spouse. The benefit here is that it gives me pause to consider her emotional disposition where she may be effected semantically. The other side of this coin is the frustrations that come with misunderstanding. When someone thinks ill of me, because of my semantics, thusly feeling misunderstood, I make every attempt to correct what was said. This is particularly true for those I am close with, and to a much lesser degree for those I have no emotional interest.

Another belief I carry is that of honesty. Within this belief, I demand integrity in my personal and professional life. However, my professional life requires, at times, a straying from the truth with other foreign nationals in order to meet objectives. In my personal life, my integrity is typically unwavering. With respect to integrity at home, it is not just about telling the truth, but acting on my inner truth, my feelings. What I mean is that there is a difference between my absolute truth, and a perceived truth. While my belief in being honest covers down on everything generally, my PV of integrity continues to guide my moral compass. As a pro to a trade-off, I would think that perhaps a ‘white lie’ may produce a happy feeling in another if it was something they wanted to hear. A con, however, is the guilty conscience of telling a lie, and deceiving someone.

Lastly, allowing for fairness in everything I do, gives those I work with and live with an opportunity to be heard, seen, and enjoy something to a greater extent. This fairness is nested in the belief of compromise; compromise in the sense of fairness to all, not of my values. At work, compromise occurs when multiple agencies annually may take a turn in running a Joint Inter-Agency conference. Often, the benefits to trading-off on this would be a sense of continuity if a particular agency were to take two, or more years consecutively, whereas a con would be missed opportunities by other agencies for years, possibly hurting inter-agency relationships.

Looking at all three beliefs at this time, continues to strengthen my support for, and resolve of them. Often, I find the need to promote the necessity for them, both at work, as well as at home. However, Baron & Leshner (2000), shares “PVs are strong opinions, weakly held…in the sense that they express infinite trade-offs” (pg. 193). I truly feel both my PVs, as well as their overarching beliefs in general, are standards that would make us all better people. While I may not always live up to my own standards, it is a standard nonetheless that I can continue to measure myself with to determine growth over time. Hoch et al. (2001), states that “…people have some threshold for when it is appropriate to hold this value and when it is appropriate to trade it off” (p.254). At this moment, I feel stronger about them than I did prior to beginning this exercise.

References:

Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H. C., & Gunther, R. E. (Eds.). (2001). Wharton on making decisions. Hoboken NJ. John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

Baron, J. & Leshner, S. (2000). How serious are expressions of protected values? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 6(3), 183-194. DOI: 10.1037//1076-898X.6.3.183

  

Tanner, C. & Medin, D. L. (n.d). Protected values: No omission bias and no framing effects. Retrieved from http://groups.psych.northwestern.edu/medin/publications/Tanner%20%26%20Medin%202004%20Protected%20Values.pdf

    

A632.4.4.RB_SiegmundWayne

Deception in Negotiations

     In negotiations, it is paramount to be prepared if one is interested in protecting their reputation and interests, as well as a chance of attaining their objectives. It can be quite challenging in determining if all the facts presented are all inclusive and true. It may also be just as difficult to manage oneself and their negotiating team's frame, disposition and behavior throughout the negotiation process, so as to not tip their hand inadvertently divulging information, or allowing behaviors that may leave the other party suspect of one's intentions.

     Throughout the negotiation process, it would be prudent to go into talks with several points prepared in attempt to stay informed while minimizing the potential for deception from the other party. It may be to one's benefit to initiate the direction of the negotiations by providing a shift in frame, presenting an unexpected, non-threatening concern aimed at showing a potential loss, influencing the negotiations to re-framing the other party's initial perception (Hoch, Kunreuther &Gunther, 2001).

     Asking direct questions will also aid in limiting the potential for deception from the other party. In this sense, you would be directing the course of negotiations by gathering the required information to help ensure that there is no disinformation, or lacking of necessary information to making a well-informed decision. During this period, time is spent directing the negotiations with a significantly less probability of experiencing a lie (Hoch et al., 2001).

     Another, tool to utilize during negotiations is listening carefully. Hoch et al. (2001), states that you should "be sure that the person providing information is in a position to know that information"...as well as "listening to both what is and what is not said" (p. 197). Listening to what is not said may even be more valuable in the course of disclosure than what is said. What the other party may be honestly disclosing may very well be a ploy against what is not being disclosed, giving off the appearance of honest negotiations.

     Hoch et al. (2001), states that "non-verbal cues are more revealing than verbal cues" (p. 197). However, it is not as easy to understand non-verbal cues to detect deception, as it would be if one was providing false information. If you know what to look for, the tell-tale signs can provide some insight into the other party's intention. Some indicators would include an increased rate in breathing, sweating, pupil dilation, fidgeting, and blinking a lot (Matsumoto, D., Hwang, H. S., SKinner, L. & Frank, M., 2011). On the other hand, some of these indicators may be a norm for some people, so it would be important to assess what their baseline norm would be prior to going into negotiations; perhaps utilizing a third party's experience of them.

     One of the most valuable tools to have, I believe, going into negotiations is a recorder; someone that could take quick, legible, detailed notes of claims made for an end-of-meeting review, as well as post-negotiation recap and resource during contract development, or on-going negotiations. Writing down the important claims from the negotiation process, inspecting records, and insisting on guarantees, go a long way in saving valuable time and potentially, a lot of money (Hoch et al., 2001).

     Not so long ago, I was in negotiations with a property care business owner. I had invited him over to walk my property with me and discuss my desires and their associated costs. In conjunction, I informed him that agreed work to be done, was to be done well and on-time (except under extenuating circumstances). He informed me he had a robust, experienced work crew that he would convey my wishes to, and he could rely on. However, over the past year, the work completed on my property was either delayed, or not conducted. Needless to say, I was misled to believe his crew's performance would be outstanding. Their performance was far below par.

     In the case where I had overstated a claim, a heated discussion during a multi-platform Video Teleconference led me to consider quelling an argument since the argument had become one of circular blame with respect to why something was not done. In turn, I had offered to complete the task immediately. While this claim quelled the discussion so we could move on to a more productive session, I had not, in-fact, done anything immediately.

     In my job, I can easily find myself in another country on the African continent where stating the reasons why I am there to Check-Point, Airport, police and country team officials would very likely be much less than the actual truth. In these situations, I would push my stance until forced by U.S. Embassy personnel, if required. However, in strictly negotiating environments, I would hold my ground and leverage my position until either gains were threatened with loss, or a relationship worth keeping was threatened.

Reference:

Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H. C. & Gunther, R. E. (2001). Wharton on making decisions. (1st ed.). Hoboken, NJ. John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

John, L. K. (2016, August). Negotiations: How to negotiate with a liar. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/2016/07/how-to-negotiate-with-a-liar

Matsumoto, D., Hwang, H. S., SKinner, L. & Frank, M. (2011, June). Evaluating truthfulness and detecting deception. Retrieved from https://leb.fbi.gov/2011/june/evaluating-truthfulness-and-detecting-deception

A632.3.3.RB_SiegmundWayne

Framing Complex Decisions

     In my organization, it is rare that decisions are made by any one person in a bubble on a single-dimensional problem. Often, in the military, managers, or supervisors have to contend with multi-dimensional decision-making processes that entails multiple stakeholders, and their environments. Here, the complexity of the decision-making process is inherent to the involved stakeholders, their environments, the authorities, funding, personnel, and permissions associated with each stakeholder's environment. In addition, the complexity of decision-making in my organization also takes into account other on-going events that may not be related, but may require coordination and deconfliction consideration.

     Addressing systemic complexity in my organization, a special operations command in a joint environment, would typically include the development of an operation, Key Leader Engagement, or movement, namely, the Concept of Operations (CONOPS), in a PowerPoint format where a collection of information is displayed (Hoch, Kunruether & Gunther, 2001). The CONOPS would then be assessed for fulfillment of a requirement, supported by authorities and their associated funding, permissions by the appropriate stakeholders, risk versus gain, and the approval of the Commanding General. Within these steps, further discussion is required to determine, and confirm constraints, personnel and equipment involved, how they are involved, the costs of their involvement, as well as the availability of assets and the logistics associated with contingency operations in the case something would happen to the involved personnel. In addition, decisions to act on gathered information that has been deemed actionable intelligence will also be made. These decisions alone require a vetting process to determine veracity and value prior to incorporating into the larger operational context.

     In order to validate and strengthen capabilities for such types of operations, the organization has developed annual scenarios nested within a real-life large scale exercise replicating the events in the same environments that would be anticipated if and when such a real-world operation would actually occur. Throughout the exercise, multiple computer modules will be utilized to show asset status and position, current intelligence, decision-making matrix, execution check-list schedule, and live video feed that will aid in understanding the current battlefield landscape, and decision-making processes.

     In looking at multiple stakeholders within my organization, there are those we answer to and act based on their tasks and orders, those we work with to integrate our efforts to provide a more meaningful and effective result, and those we support and work together with. The tasks and orders often come from the President of the United States, the secretary of Defense, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Africa Command. Within each of these levels, vested stakeholders reside, as does those integrated within my organization such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Central Intelligence Agency, Joint Personnel Recovery Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, Defense Clandestine Services, and United States Special Operations Command. The interaction and integration between all of these agencies and my own, is a challenge we are still working on to this day.

     The approach to this issue occurs on a one-to-one basis, as well as annual conferences where representatives from each respective agency is in attendance. The purpose of these conferences is to listen and understand each others capabilities, resources, what they bring to the operating environment and discuss how best to integrate said capabilities, understand their inherent constraints and determine through inter-agency integration how best to strengthen these capabilities for future use (Hoch et al., 2001).

     Environmentally, my organization operates in the geopolitical, military, inter-agency, and civilian environments. At times, decisions are being made by my organization at U.S. Embassies throughout Africa, the State Department, Department of Defense Agencies, military posts, and even Starbucks. The use of organizational email, online organizational and agency web portals, intelligence databases, as well as personnel mapping and authorizations and funding provide at-the-fingertip access as a living information base. Limiting factors across these environmental domains exist constraints that lie within a language barrier. Each of these environments have their own culture, and with that, terms and acronyms that must be explained to ensure flat communications and transparency between them all. My organization, along with their current capabilities, stakeholders and Decision Support Systems (DSS), provide a good place to strengthen those capabilities.

     In my assessment, I would logically and incrementally implement the Two-Stage Process, where stage one "focuses on enhancing knowledge of the environment, response flexibility, and the value of different options". and stage two, concerned with implementing decisions for the sake of the money (Hoch et al., 2001, p. 120). However, in the case of the military, it would be for the sake of reaching desired effects across all stakeholders and environments. As part of the process, an After Actions Report (AAR) would be produced for the sake of Lessons Learned and re-evaluation of events, and decisions made

References:

Ang, K. C. S., Killen, C. P. & Snakaran, S. (2015, June 20). Value constructs in multi-stakeholder environments that influence project portfolio decision making. Retrieved from https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/36281/1/Euram_Paper%201637_Ang_Killen_Sankaran_Value%20constructs.pdf

Hill, J. (2004, August). Facilitating complex multi-stakeholder processes: A social learning perspective. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/research/water-initiative/pdf/iwrm_scicom/a/a3_en.pdf

Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H. C., & Gunther, R. E. (2001). Wharton on Making Decisions. Hoboken: NJ. John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

Montibeller, G., Phillips, L. & Fasolo, B. (n.d.). Revolutionising decision-making in complex multi-stakeholder contexts. Retrieved from http://www.lse.ac.uk/researchAndExpertise/researchImpact/caseStudies/montibeller-revolutionising-decision-making-in-complex-multi-stakeholder-contexts.aspx

    

A632.3.4.RB_SiegmundWayne

Reflections on Decision Making

     Avoiding framing traps would be impossible without some level of self-awareness. The deeper and longer we are self-aware, the better the opportunities to identify these traps. In becoming aware that certain framing traps exist, we can counter them with specific strategies and tools (Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther, 2001).

     Avoiding Frame Blindness (Hoch et al., 2001), can be accomplished through increasing awareness about your own perceptions, and looking into others' frames for comparison against your own. In addition, having an open mind to allow for other ideas, can also help in breaking down mental barriers you did not know existed. In addition, an earnest search for established assumptions based on experience can also help in avoiding this blindness. For example, when I entered college, I knew I was there for the Men's Varsity Gymnastics team, but also what became equally important, was working to earn a Bachelor's degree in Physics. My perception in my academics was that it came second to my training, and therefore my focus and priority was on the gymnastics team.

     Although I always made time to get my homework completed, my time-management suffered, leaving me doing homework late at night, and sometimes the day it is due. When I discovered academic athletic awards from looking at historical university plaques, I learned that I could possibly be removed from the gymnastics team if I did not keep a certain cumulative average. In becoming aware of these athletic provisions and awards, I was able to re-prioritize my efforts and shift my frame of thinking to academics first, and gymnastics second. The perception on my gymnastics changed for the better even though my primary focus was now on academics. The risk here was that my gymnastics could possibly suffer. It turned out I stopped trying so hard in the gym, discovering new gymnastics skills came easier to me than I ever knew!

    A second way to avoid framing traps is to evaluate your biases that come from unconscious filtering of valuable information, ideas, and perceptions leading to an Illusion of Completeness (Hoch, et al., 2001). When we unconsciously overlay thoughts and ideas that we tend to favor on top of an existing, or current perception and act on making decision believing we have all the appropriate information needed, we have fallen into an ill-perceived framing trap.

In order to avoid this trap, we need to always understand that we bring positive and negative perceptions from past experience with us into new experiences. Sometimes we recognize a pattern and assign a previous frame to it, influencing our decisions. However, it is here, we need to give each recognized pattern the opportunity to offer us a unique experience. Being aware of what biases we could be possibly assigning this new pattern, can help keep us from falling into this trap. Case and point: In attempt to feel more relaxed at my first joint operations brief, I took what I knew from previous meetings and kept them in mind as I entered this new brief. As I looked around gathering others' behaviors and concerns, I came to realize that my previous experience was not going to apply. Everyone around me was considering multiple sides of a number of issues, whereas, I had only prepared to defend and support a single idea with respect to sensitive activities training with another country. In attempt to keep myself from looking foolish, I immediately dropped all biases from my thinking, leaving me with an open mind to speak from my experience. The risk here, was that I still would not be able to connect on the same page with those at the table.

     As I shared my pros and cons on the different training programs over four different countries, I had sparked a new productive discussion on authorities and permissions that allowed for multiple training types to occur in a single country, and afforded myself a new fresh, un-tethered perception of what appeared to be a familiar environment.

     A third method of avoiding framing traps would be in preventing overconfidence in one's own frame (Hoch et al., 2001). We tend to feel overconfident within our own frame while undervaluing that of others in support of our own. Even given the knowledge of another perspective, I feel the rigidity of the ego keeps one's own assumption that their own frame is still more valuable than another. For example, shortly after getting married at the age of 34, I had consistently defended a frame of thinking with respect to deciding to purchase a truck. I felt I had earned it over the years, and that it would serve the family in a practical manner for years to come. In feeling this way, I was quite sure that my perspective was more correct than my wife's. However, given some time to consider her frame, and where she was coming from, I increased the value of her frame over mine, and made a different choice. The potential risk in making this adjustment was perhaps never realizing my dream truck. I now own that truck with no regrets.

     In the case of each of these traps, I was able to identify inconsistencies, and obstacles within my own frame, and allowing enough flexibility to make a shift, or change from the current framework at the time to one that proved to be more valuable and effective. From these experiences, I am now able to enter into similar situations with a greater sense of awareness, and openness to shifting frames than I had before.

     These examples taught me that my experiences alone will not always serve me, other perspectives may be more valuable to me than the one I have for any given situation, I need to remain self-aware of assumptions, biases, and the steadfast holding of ideas from similar experiences, and to give myself the consideration of creating a Joint Fame (Hoch et al., 2001). Some tools I would have implemented had I been aware of them would be the Joint Frame, Prospective Hindsight, Assess the Mental Images, Key stakeholders, and Reference Point Analysis.

     I have learned that while I would like to believe my frame has enough value to go forward and make choices based on it alone, it is more valuable to exercise self-awareness to correct assumptions, biases, and specific perceptions I may carry. In addition, keep an open mind to receiving other frames of reference and perspectives to create a more well rounded, and flexible frame myself in hopes to make a wiser decision.

References: 

Cotter, M., Elliot, J., Harris, D., Paris, K., Thayer-Hart, N.,...Zanzig, A. (2007). Facilitator tool kit: A guide for helping groups get results. Retrieved from http://oqi.wisc.edu/resourcelibrary/uploads/resources/Facilitator%20Tool%20Kit.pdf

Courtney, H., Lovallo, D. & Clarke, C. (2013, November). Decision making: Deciding how to decide. Retrieved from https://hbr.org/2013/11/deciding-how-to-decide

Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H. C., & Gunther, R. E. (2005). Wharton on making decisions. (1st ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Petty, A. (2011, March 9). Management excellence toolkit-3: How to frame your decisions for success. Retrieved from https://artpetty.com/2011/03/09/management-excellence-toolkit-part-3-how-to-frame-your-decisions-for-success/

A632.2.3.RB_SiegmundWayne

How To Make Choosing Easier

     For years, when confronted with more than three options, or courses of action, I often found myself taking longer than usual to work out the decision-making process that would render a choice that I would typically not regret.  I have become better at eliminating extraneous and irrelevant information, mentally organizing and weighing of the values between the remaining options, and have chosen based on experience, intuition and logic.  However, the time it takes to make these decision, at work as well as home, depends not only the impact of the second, third, fourth, etc. order of effects, but also the number of options from which I start with.

    When presented with an abundance of options from which to choose, heuristics will usually provide me a quick way to filter out what I would normally consider not an option, and quickly label those remaining in hopes of supporting a wise decision. With heuristics, pattern recognition and filtering based on experience may be skewed to the new problem set at hand. In attempt to adjust my heuristics in the future, I will work to practice cutting out the extraneous, redundant options, concretize the options in order to understand the consequences of choosing them, categorize remaining options in attempt to visually and mentally understand what I am choosing, and condition myself to deal with complex choices by working fewer, simple options first, then work to choosing more complex ones (Lyengar, 2011).

     While working to modify heuristics with new experiences, patterns and information, it is important to understand that though heuristics serve a purpose, they may lack vital information, contributing to errors in decision making (Milkman, Chugh & Bazerman, 2010).

     In my personal life, when presented with a large number of options from which to choose, my inclination is to cut out and eliminate all potential options that through some quick, but thoughtful analysis, do not apply, or are less valuable (Lyengar & Agrawal, 2010). For example, when choosing between different types of socks to purchase, I quickly look at and identify what I do not like to wear, so that they will not be part of my decision-making process when considering what to buy. With so many options from which to choose, it saves a great deal of time.

     As part of a military unit, I look to fully understand a problem set in order to more clearly see what my options are. Once my options are identified, I evaluate what impacts come from each option, if chosen, and determine if the outcome resolves the issue based on experience and intuition. When an option proves to render a satisfying result above all others, a decision is made. In this sense, it appears I utilize concretization in order to vivtize my options and understand the consequences of each if chosen.

     In conclusion, it is my intention to improve time-management for myself, so as to allow when possible, the time to apply the four principles; cut, organize, concretize, and condition, in order to develop a new, more deliberate decision-making process (Lyengar, 2011).

References

Lyengar, S (2011, November). Sheena lyengar: How to make choosing easier [TED Talks Video]. Retrieved from http://www.ted.com/talks/sheena_iyengar_choosing_what_to_choose#t-869622

Lyengar, S. & Agrwal, K. (2010, November 23). A better choosing experience. Retrieved from http://www.strategy-business.com/article/00046?gko=13ead

Milkman, K. L., Chugh, D. & Bazerman, M. H. (2008). How can decision making be improved? Retrieved from http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/08-102.pdf

    

A632.1.4.RB_SiegmundWayne

Multistage Decision Making

     In my experience, the decision-making process varies, depending on the value and complexity of the problem at hand.  If I determine getting fuel for my car now would be an inconvenience, I would quickly assess to find the next opportunity in the future and determine if that time is too far away, or not, based on the fuel I have remaining. If the time identified in the future was plausible, the impact of choosing the date in the future would be minimal, and I would simply get fuel later, making the impact to be less of an inconvenience now.

     In another scenario of deciding to wake up to my alarm, or select snooze for 10 minutes depends on the reasons as to why I have my alarm set. The value of getting up on time (initial alarm) for making breakfast is less than the value of getting up on time for work. Upon waking to the alarm, I quickly assess how I feel and determine, if tired enough, if 10 more minutes of rest will negatively impact my schedule, or if I need to make an adjustment in my morning routine.

     In both of these cases, if left at the single stage of determinacy, could prove to be a very inconvenient decision if other factors are not taken into consideration to calculate a better outcome with less potential for a negative impact. For example, if while at work, I was asked to attend a meeting on the other side of town, in the opposite direction of the nearest fuel station, I would potentially run out of fuel before ever making it to the meeting, leading to a number of new problems to contend with, besides missing the meeting. If choosing to hit the snooze button for another 10 minutes, I could possibly sleep through the next alarm, and run late for work knowing traffic gets worse the more I delay.

     In my heuristics, I often find myself thinking more on what factors I am leaving out and how they would impact the outcome of my decisions. The decision to do this comes from experiencing too often the negative impact of factors not considered during the decision-making process. However, at the same time, a parallel experience of utilizing my intuition (pattern recognition) offers a quick reference to help offset any feelings of uncertainty. If I can intuitively recognize a problem and recall experience to support the decision-making process, more time can be used to address any myopia related to multistage decision problems (Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther, 2001).

     Being myopic in my decision-making process impacts other people in my workplace, as well as those at embassies in other countries. Recently, I was given the choice to send money with another service member to a country in Africa, or to have it sent via diplomatic courier at a small cost. I knew getting the service member to bring the money with them would be quickest, and would have it immediately available to the, the amount they could bring would be limited. The impact to having the service member take the money with them is a new request in the near future for more funds to be sent to them via diplomatic courier. I would also have to take into consideration the fact that the service member may come under some scrutiny during customs in Africa, resulting in delays and potential negative impacts associated with the United States and that country. however, if the amount transported by the service member is under $10,000.00, scrutiny in unlikely.

     The rule of thumb here has traditionally been to send the funds with the service member, so the service member can immediately make use of the funds as needed. On one hand, there is the value of being able to get to work with funding immediately, with a potential for financial scrutiny at customs, possibly impacting strategic relationships. On the other hand, there is the value of the U.S. Embassy and country team relationship utilizing a secure and accepted diplomatic courier to send the money preserving diplomatic relations, despite a two week delay in the arrival of the funds, and minimal cost for the service. In this case, the cost for the diplomatic services over time outweighs the probability of issues that can creep up at the customs office. 

     Considering future consequences of either decision, my intuition tells me to avoid sending the funds with the service member, given the option to send funds securely with a two week delay. The service member can use the two weeks to continue building rapport with the country team personnel and become familiar with their new environment and work requirements. Every six months when a new service member rotates out, and a new one rotates in, a review of these two choices, to send funds via service member, or send funds via diplomatic courier, will be made to account for any changes that may occur.

     In comparison between the current decision-making processes I use now, and the dynamic decision-making process mentioned in chapter three of our reading, that the two may be similar. The two assumptions, Accumulation of Knowledge, along with a Decision Policy, are used in my decision-making process already with respect to certain choices. In other cases, a Decision Policy may not be in place. However, I can definitely see, if applicable, the benefits in having one, and will look for opportunities to create them. However, considering dynamic programming, as appealing and attractive a formal mathematical formula is to me, it is unlikely I would replace any of my heuristics, and save the process for when time allowed, and the decision is valuable to me. Nevertheless, the dynamic programming process would most certainly improve my decision making, knowing that all the accumulated information and decisional factors are taken into account (Hoch, et al., 2001).

     The impact of the dynamic decision-making process on forward planning is the identification of the relationships between impact and decision policy over time. Applying optimal dynamic decision analysis to predict future impact of today's decisions, I would first look at myself for any assumptions and biases I may hold with respect to the problem and its components, and determine if the analysis process in fact applies, all the while paying attention to my intuition. I would also look at possible future impacts (removal of possible myopic tendencies), so as to foresee as many probable outcomes as possible during the analysis process (Hoch et al., 2001).


References:

Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H. C., & Gunther, R. E. (2001). Wharton on making decisions. New York: NY. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Bogacz,R. Brown, E., Moehlis, J., Holmes, P., & Cohen, J. D. (2006). The physics of optimal decision making: A formal analysis of models of performance in two-alternative forced-choice tasks. Psychological Review 113(4), 700-765. DOI: 10.1037/0033-295X.113.4.700.