Framing Complex Decisions
In my organization, it is rare that decisions are made by any one person in a bubble on a single-dimensional problem. Often, in the military, managers, or supervisors have to contend with multi-dimensional decision-making processes that entails multiple stakeholders, and their environments. Here, the complexity of the decision-making process is inherent to the involved stakeholders, their environments, the authorities, funding, personnel, and permissions associated with each stakeholder's environment. In addition, the complexity of decision-making in my organization also takes into account other on-going events that may not be related, but may require coordination and deconfliction consideration.
Addressing systemic complexity in my organization, a special operations command in a joint environment, would typically include the development of an operation, Key Leader Engagement, or movement, namely, the Concept of Operations (CONOPS), in a PowerPoint format where a collection of information is displayed (Hoch, Kunruether & Gunther, 2001). The CONOPS would then be assessed for fulfillment of a requirement, supported by authorities and their associated funding, permissions by the appropriate stakeholders, risk versus gain, and the approval of the Commanding General. Within these steps, further discussion is required to determine, and confirm constraints, personnel and equipment involved, how they are involved, the costs of their involvement, as well as the availability of assets and the logistics associated with contingency operations in the case something would happen to the involved personnel. In addition, decisions to act on gathered information that has been deemed actionable intelligence will also be made. These decisions alone require a vetting process to determine veracity and value prior to incorporating into the larger operational context.
In order to validate and strengthen capabilities for such types of operations, the organization has developed annual scenarios nested within a real-life large scale exercise replicating the events in the same environments that would be anticipated if and when such a real-world operation would actually occur. Throughout the exercise, multiple computer modules will be utilized to show asset status and position, current intelligence, decision-making matrix, execution check-list schedule, and live video feed that will aid in understanding the current battlefield landscape, and decision-making processes.
In looking at multiple stakeholders within my organization, there are those we answer to and act based on their tasks and orders, those we work with to integrate our efforts to provide a more meaningful and effective result, and those we support and work together with. The tasks and orders often come from the President of the United States, the secretary of Defense, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Africa Command. Within each of these levels, vested stakeholders reside, as does those integrated within my organization such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Central Intelligence Agency, Joint Personnel Recovery Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, Defense Clandestine Services, and United States Special Operations Command. The interaction and integration between all of these agencies and my own, is a challenge we are still working on to this day.
The approach to this issue occurs on a one-to-one basis, as well as annual conferences where representatives from each respective agency is in attendance. The purpose of these conferences is to listen and understand each others capabilities, resources, what they bring to the operating environment and discuss how best to integrate said capabilities, understand their inherent constraints and determine through inter-agency integration how best to strengthen these capabilities for future use (Hoch et al., 2001).
Environmentally, my organization operates in the geopolitical, military, inter-agency, and civilian environments. At times, decisions are being made by my organization at U.S. Embassies throughout Africa, the State Department, Department of Defense Agencies, military posts, and even Starbucks. The use of organizational email, online organizational and agency web portals, intelligence databases, as well as personnel mapping and authorizations and funding provide at-the-fingertip access as a living information base. Limiting factors across these environmental domains exist constraints that lie within a language barrier. Each of these environments have their own culture, and with that, terms and acronyms that must be explained to ensure flat communications and transparency between them all. My organization, along with their current capabilities, stakeholders and Decision Support Systems (DSS), provide a good place to strengthen those capabilities.
In my assessment, I would logically and incrementally implement the Two-Stage Process, where stage one "focuses on enhancing knowledge of the environment, response flexibility, and the value of different options". and stage two, concerned with implementing decisions for the sake of the money (Hoch et al., 2001, p. 120). However, in the case of the military, it would be for the sake of reaching desired effects across all stakeholders and environments. As part of the process, an After Actions Report (AAR) would be produced for the sake of Lessons Learned and re-evaluation of events, and decisions made
References:
Ang, K. C. S., Killen, C. P. & Snakaran, S. (2015, June 20). Value constructs in multi-stakeholder environments that influence project portfolio decision making. Retrieved from https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/bitstream/10453/36281/1/Euram_Paper%201637_Ang_Killen_Sankaran_Value%20constructs.pdf
Hill, J. (2004, August). Facilitating complex multi-stakeholder processes: A social learning perspective. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/research/water-initiative/pdf/iwrm_scicom/a/a3_en.pdf
Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H. C., & Gunther, R. E. (2001). Wharton on Making Decisions. Hoboken: NJ. John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
Montibeller, G., Phillips, L. & Fasolo, B. (n.d.). Revolutionising decision-making in complex multi-stakeholder contexts. Retrieved from http://www.lse.ac.uk/researchAndExpertise/researchImpact/caseStudies/montibeller-revolutionising-decision-making-in-complex-multi-stakeholder-contexts.aspx
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