Multistage Decision Making
In my experience, the decision-making process varies, depending on the value and complexity of the problem at hand. If I determine getting fuel for my car now would be an inconvenience, I would quickly assess to find the next opportunity in the future and determine if that time is too far away, or not, based on the fuel I have remaining. If the time identified in the future was plausible, the impact of choosing the date in the future would be minimal, and I would simply get fuel later, making the impact to be less of an inconvenience now.
In another scenario of deciding to wake up to my alarm, or select snooze for 10 minutes depends on the reasons as to why I have my alarm set. The value of getting up on time (initial alarm) for making breakfast is less than the value of getting up on time for work. Upon waking to the alarm, I quickly assess how I feel and determine, if tired enough, if 10 more minutes of rest will negatively impact my schedule, or if I need to make an adjustment in my morning routine.
In both of these cases, if left at the single stage of determinacy, could prove to be a very inconvenient decision if other factors are not taken into consideration to calculate a better outcome with less potential for a negative impact. For example, if while at work, I was asked to attend a meeting on the other side of town, in the opposite direction of the nearest fuel station, I would potentially run out of fuel before ever making it to the meeting, leading to a number of new problems to contend with, besides missing the meeting. If choosing to hit the snooze button for another 10 minutes, I could possibly sleep through the next alarm, and run late for work knowing traffic gets worse the more I delay.
In my heuristics, I often find myself thinking more on what factors I am leaving out and how they would impact the outcome of my decisions. The decision to do this comes from experiencing too often the negative impact of factors not considered during the decision-making process. However, at the same time, a parallel experience of utilizing my intuition (pattern recognition) offers a quick reference to help offset any feelings of uncertainty. If I can intuitively recognize a problem and recall experience to support the decision-making process, more time can be used to address any myopia related to multistage decision problems (Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther, 2001).
Being myopic in my decision-making process impacts other people in my workplace, as well as those at embassies in other countries. Recently, I was given the choice to send money with another service member to a country in Africa, or to have it sent via diplomatic courier at a small cost. I knew getting the service member to bring the money with them would be quickest, and would have it immediately available to the, the amount they could bring would be limited. The impact to having the service member take the money with them is a new request in the near future for more funds to be sent to them via diplomatic courier. I would also have to take into consideration the fact that the service member may come under some scrutiny during customs in Africa, resulting in delays and potential negative impacts associated with the United States and that country. however, if the amount transported by the service member is under $10,000.00, scrutiny in unlikely.
The rule of thumb here has traditionally been to send the funds with the service member, so the service member can immediately make use of the funds as needed. On one hand, there is the value of being able to get to work with funding immediately, with a potential for financial scrutiny at customs, possibly impacting strategic relationships. On the other hand, there is the value of the U.S. Embassy and country team relationship utilizing a secure and accepted diplomatic courier to send the money preserving diplomatic relations, despite a two week delay in the arrival of the funds, and minimal cost for the service. In this case, the cost for the diplomatic services over time outweighs the probability of issues that can creep up at the customs office.
Considering future consequences of either decision, my intuition tells me to avoid sending the funds with the service member, given the option to send funds securely with a two week delay. The service member can use the two weeks to continue building rapport with the country team personnel and become familiar with their new environment and work requirements. Every six months when a new service member rotates out, and a new one rotates in, a review of these two choices, to send funds via service member, or send funds via diplomatic courier, will be made to account for any changes that may occur.
In comparison between the current decision-making processes I use now, and the dynamic decision-making process mentioned in chapter three of our reading, that the two may be similar. The two assumptions, Accumulation of Knowledge, along with a Decision Policy, are used in my decision-making process already with respect to certain choices. In other cases, a Decision Policy may not be in place. However, I can definitely see, if applicable, the benefits in having one, and will look for opportunities to create them. However, considering dynamic programming, as appealing and attractive a formal mathematical formula is to me, it is unlikely I would replace any of my heuristics, and save the process for when time allowed, and the decision is valuable to me. Nevertheless, the dynamic programming process would most certainly improve my decision making, knowing that all the accumulated information and decisional factors are taken into account (Hoch, et al., 2001).
The impact of the dynamic decision-making process on forward planning is the identification of the relationships between impact and decision policy over time. Applying optimal dynamic decision analysis to predict future impact of today's decisions, I would first look at myself for any assumptions and biases I may hold with respect to the problem and its components, and determine if the analysis process in fact applies, all the while paying attention to my intuition. I would also look at possible future impacts (removal of possible myopic tendencies), so as to foresee as many probable outcomes as possible during the analysis process (Hoch et al., 2001).
References:
References:
Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H. C., & Gunther, R. E. (2001). Wharton on making decisions. New York: NY. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Bogacz,R. Brown, E., Moehlis, J., Holmes, P., & Cohen, J. D. (2006). The physics of optimal decision making: A formal analysis of models of performance in two-alternative forced-choice tasks. Psychological Review 113(4), 700-765. DOI: 10.1037/0033-295X.113.4.700.
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